RACE VOTE CHOICE RESEARCH PROPOSAL

Document Type:Thesis

Subject Area:Politics

Document 1

American National Election Study (ANES) is a group of researchers who carry out a survey on the electoral behavior as well as attitudes in the United States. The survey deals with the perceptions of voters of the main political parties, the candidates, national and international issues as well as the significance of the election (Warren E. Miller et al, 2017). Through these analysis, I found out that racial orientations impacts voters’ effective comparisons of candidates as well vote choice and even controls other relevant determining factors. In addition, the significance of racial orientation in elections increases with the existence of an African-American candidate on the ballot. Eventually, I argue that the incorporation of racial orientation as a variable together with ideology, the party that the candidate belong as well as judgement of the election candidates’ features plays a significant role in determining the voters’ choice in any given election. Though the 2008 presidential election was the first ever to have a viable Black candidate, it wasn’t the initial United States election about race. In a matter of fact, almost all the U. S’ national elections are about race (Howard Winant, 2009). President Hussein Barack Obama was just the first black leader of the independent world, that is a winner of an election in race was vividly not an obstacle and might even been an added advantage to him(Abigail Thernstrom,2009). Introduction Voters’ candidate choice in an election is influence my many factors. Some of the common standout factors comprise of voter’s background, party identification as well the past performance of the government.

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Added to these three factors influencing the American voters’ candidate choice is the racial inclination. The News and World Report of the 2008 United States Election’s Coverage put across that describing the candidature of Hussein Barack Obama as significant was just but a mere understatement, alternatively, the writer demands, “That a black man has mounted so successful a charge up the nation’s highest political office speaks volumes about the changes that have occurred in American even since…1988” (Tolson, 2008). Correspondingly, the November 5th, 2008 New York Times’ anterior page, asserted that Barack Obama’s victory was “a strikingly symbolic moment in the evolution of the nation’s fraught racial history, a breakthrough that would have seemed unthinkable just two years ago” (Nagourney, 2008). To some, Obama’s victory was an indication that the United States was now becoming a post-racial country.

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They believe that America was making significant steps towards a moment in which all the elections’ candidates will be determine mostly through their qualifications and manifestos rather than their race. In this research proposal, I will not only find out the range in which racial orientation plays in influencing voter’s choice in a presidential election but I will also strive to find out if the existence of a black presidential candidate intensify the role played by racial orientation in candidate evaluation and hence the electoral choice. A lot of research have frequently indicated that white’s attitudes of black candidates are mostly affected by the negative racial examinations (For instance, Tate, 2003; Terkildsen, 1993; Moskowitz, 1994 & Gay, 2001). All these academicians expostulated that whites, generally evaluate the black candidates badly than they do the white candidates.

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The second reason is that as Paker, Sawyer and Towler (2009) eloquently explain: “Because the president is the personification of the government domestically, the face of the United States to foreign audiences, and the figure of authority for the country, one cannot overestimate the symbolic importance of the office. ” I hope to provide answers to several questions regarding the duty of racial inclinations in the presidential elections choice. To start with, I ask myself to what range American’s racial inclinations influences presidential elections candidate does. In any case that I found that it has a great role, then I also ask myself whether racial inclinations influences candidate choice directly or indirectly. I will answer all these questions based on the issue points. H1: Racial inclinations influences presidential candidate choice by a large extent H0: Racial inclinations influences presidential candidate choice by a smaller extent.

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This hypothesis is derived from the second research question, which seek to find put the range in which race influences the voters’ choice in a presidential election H1: Racial inclinations directly influences the presidential candidate choice H0: Racial inclinations doesn’t directly influences the presidential candidate choice This third hypothesis tries to determine whether race directly influences candidate choice in presidential election or not. H1: Racial inclinations is more prominent in contest between candidates of different racial groups than in campaigns featuring two opponents of the same race. H0: Racial inclinations aren’t more prominent in contest between candidates of different racial groups than in campaigns featuring two opponents of the same race. This is the last hypothesis based on the research questions. In addition, it has been determine as the chief powerful predictor of political orientations as well as behavior (Henry & Sears, 2002).

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Concerning cognition, racial stereotypes are more easily accessible especially among adult Americans and are usually derived as well as utilized in applicable contexts (Domke, 2001). In the case of voting behavior, citizens usually utilized their perceptions on candidates’ race as their racial identity to make a difficult decision easy to be made. Literature Review As it has been discussed earlier different academics have come up vast view on the role place by race in determining the voters’ candidates’ choice. It is very significant to find out manners in which racial inclinations might impacts on the voter’s decisions. Majority of the whites from all aspects of life voted for President Donald Trump whereas majority of the black Americans, Asians, Latino as well as other races voted for Hillary Clinton. For instance, in white college grads, Trump got 49% compared to Clinton’s 45%.

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In non-white college grads, Clinton got 71% as compared to Trump’s 23 %( Walbert Castillo, 2016). In attempting to widen the literature on role of racial inclinations in determining voter’s choice, I will want to gain sense on whether racial orientations has an important role in political elections that involve a non-white candidate and a white candidate. As it has been previously stated in Sears et. Though voter’s choice of a candidate is influence by various factors such as party identification, issue stance, cognitive as well as affection, I will just concentrate on measurement of the effect of race on voters’ choice. I utilize a standard scaling questions to measure racial inclinations respondents through a slate of questions designed specifically to elicit such inclinations. The questions speak to how respondents characterize the contingencies of African-American.

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In addition, I measured the standard 7-poiny Party Identification, liberal-conservative political ideology as well binary variable showing whether or not the voter reported to voting for a Democratic political candidate. There isn’t any instances of multicollinearity among any variables of concern. S. E 0. Political ideology 0. S. E -0. Racial inclinations*(1988) 0. S. E 0. Racial inclinations*(2004) 0. S. With racial inclinations Pseudo R2 AIC 1739. ANOVA Statistics 0. Discussion The above two tables that is table 1 as well as table 2 , shows the analysis of the racial impacts on the vote choice in the presidential elections of 1988, 2004, 2008 and 2016. These results is used to test the four hypotheses this research proposal. Although there are other factors such as party identification, political ideology as well as personal qualities difference that Americans’ voters usually consider before making a vote choice, racial inclinations take a center stage in some of the choices especially for 1988, 2008 as well as 2016 presidential elections.

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In addition to table 1, table 2 also proof that racial inclinations directly influence the voters’ choice in the presidential elections. The influence is also more intense when the election involve candidates from two different races. When the election involve candidates from the same race, other factors such as party identification, personal qualities differences as well as competency come into play. Conclusion In conclusion, this research proposal is unfolded by two diverging perspective regarding the role that race plays in the Americans elections. In one hand, a couple of individuals believe that race matters a lot in the voter’s choice in all the presidential elections. Political Research Quarterly 60, (2007) Campbell, Angus, Philip E. Converse, Warren E. Miller, and Donald E. Stokes. The American Voter. Wall. Symbolic Racism in Candidate Evaluation: An Experiment. Political Behavior 12, no.

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Henry, P. J. Kinder, Donald R. Presidential Character Revisited. In Political Cognition, edited by Richard R. Lau and David O. Sears. Fiske. Presidential Prototypes. Political Behavior 2, no. Moskowitz, David, and Patrick Stroh. Psychological Sources of Electoral Racism. Richard R. Lau, T. Tyler, and H. Allen. Self-Interest vs. Terkildsen, Nayda. When White Voters Evaluate Black Candidates: The Processing Implications of Candidate Skin Color, Prejudice, and Self-Monitoring. American Journal of Political Science 37, (1993) Thernstrom, Abigail, and Stephen Thernstrom. Racial Gerry manding Is Unnecessary. The Wall Street Journal, November 11 2008. usatoday. com/2016/11/09/how-we-voted-by-age-education-race-and-sexual-orientation/ on 1/5/2018.

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