Analysis of the Impact of Armed Conflict on Forest Vegetation

This study aims to identify forest vegetation changes in Jebel Marra region western Sudan for 2001 and 2017 using Spectral Angle Mapper Classification and post classification change detection technique.  Two Landsat and one Sentinel-2 satellite images used for case; the image from 2002 was acquired prior to the conflict and the image from 2017 depicts post-conflict conditions. The image has been preprocessed to enhance the image. Post-classification change detection technique has been applied. Two data sets acquired at different dates were analyzed together to detect locations where change has occurred. Research Questions: 10 1. History of Armed conflict in Jebel Marra region 11 1. Impact of war 13 1. Conceptual Framework 14 CHAPTER TWO 16 Literature Review 16 2. Geography: 16 2. Wood Products in The Study Area: 22 2. Land Use and Economic Activities: 22 2. Vegetation of Sudan: 22 2. Status of Northern Sudan Forests: 24 2. Fuel wood in Sudan: 25 2. The Role of Forests on Rainfall: 30 2.

Poverty and Forest Degradation: 31 2. Environmental Impact of Forest Fire: 31 2. The Fires in Jabel Marra: 31 2. The Impact of Warfare on the Natural Resources 32 2. Forests Ideology Processes in War: 36 2. Beneficial Influences of War on The Forest Section: 36 2. The Positive Impact of War on People: 37 CHAPTER THREE 37 Research Methodology 37 3. Material: 38 3. Methods. Land Cover Maps 45 3. Accuracy Assessment 48 3. Change Detection 53 3. Post-classification comparison 54 3. Analysis the Status of Forest, Grassland and Bare land of the Study Area During Years (2002 - 2017) 62 3. Several studies have concluded that armed conflict is generally deleterious to plants and animals due to habitat destruction and fragmentation, direct loss of animals from poaching or land mines, and over-exploitation; these types of effects occurred during the 1990–1991 Gulf War (El-Gamily, 2007; Koch & El-Baz, 1998). Since the advent of satellite-based Earth observation, land cover/land use change detection has been a major driver of developments in the analysis of remotely sensed data (Anuta and Bauer, 1973; Anderson, 1977; Nelson, 1983; Singh, 1989; Lu et al.

Aplin, 2004; Coppin et al. More recently, high spatial resolution imagery has been available from commercial operators, providing unique opportunities for detailed characterization and monitoring of forest ecosystems (Wulder et al. c; Hay et al. Indeed, remotely sensed imagery is an important data source for the systematic and consistent characterization of change over time in terrestrial ecosystems (Coops et al. Forest and rangelands in Darfur cover 45% of the area in the district. These areas are critical and a key asset, but they are consistently degraded. Forest and rangelands are considered a primary sustenance asset for the population. These areas range from poor savannahs in the north to rich savannahs in the south (Darfur arrive commission, 2008). War took place in 2003 and most of the war operations (battles) ensued between the rebel’s groups and government army.

During these fights, thousands of trees in the forest were cut down by different groups of people (civilian, government military, and rebels) and for different uses. Government and rebels cleared the forestland for opening roads in order to use it for the fighting operation. The civilians who live around the forest are completely dependent on the forest for their basic needs (fuel wood, food, building materials) (Dirk and Ellen Van, 2002). Objectives: 1. Although the government of Sudan denies any support for groups such as the Janjaweed, but that a lot of countries and international organizations accuse the Sudanese government of providing material support and arms to the Janjaweed teams and even participate with them in their assault on the tribes that support the rebels It seems that the lack of rain, desertification and population growth was one of the main reasons for the outbreak of this crisis.

Tribes were Albagara during their search for water and food are forced to leave to the existing agricultural areas in Darfur. On February 6, 2009 the United Nations said that the continued fighting between Sudanese government forces and rebels in southern Darfur in the first week of the month of February 2009 caused the displacement of more than 30 thousand people came out of their homes. Especially from the regions of Sheiria and Muhajeriya City area. The Sudanese army also said "it took over the town of Muhajiriya from rebels Justice and Equality Movement (Adam, 2012). The Hotiya, a small tribe originally from Chad, had clashed repeatedly with Rizeigat Abbala over water and pastureland from which Fur farmers they associated with the insurgents of the Sudan Liberation Army (SLA) had been driven. With the new availability of land, the Hotiya had diversified from cattle into crops, expanded the size of their farms, and then, according to the Rizeigat, had denied them access to grazing land and water sources (Lute and Achim, 2009).

While they may not have had a hakura or adar,some of those present in Limo had well-established traditional rights to land. The majority did not. Two immensely destructive mini-wars between Baggara and Rizeigat Abbala south of Jebel Marra triggered the Limo meeting. Mostly illiterate and unemployed, many resorted to rent-seeking behaviour, including occupying by force of arms land belonging to non-Arab groups. Only two of the groups present in Limo refused to join the coalition: the Mahadi, pastoralists of Chadian origin who have close relations with some Northern Rizeigat, and the Terjem, who had not received any support from their Baggara neighbours in their conflict with Hemeti’s Border Guards (Adam, 2012). Conceptual Framework The research study covers the topic compressively in a very systematical way. It begins by discussing the background of the topic as well as describing the physical location of the study area.

The research questions, the research problem and the objective of the study were clearly outlined. It lies '' in the very heart of African continent'' (WICHENS 1976) at minimum 1500 km from the sea. The most peculiar feature of this location is that it is at least 1000 km away from any similarly high mountain (Adam, 2003). The only other mountains on the same latitudes in northern part of Africa are found in northern Ethiopia (Semien). The southwestern of Jabel with slopes and its isolated being A volcano of height 3 042, two zones of 25 000 ha were proclaimed forest in 1958. These zones were preserved as reserves since they are located alongside on the rainier southwestern slants isolated by patches of cultivated lands. Figure 4: Sudan Map Figure 5: location of the study area 2. Population: About 553. inhabitants, according to the fifth population census, estimated population of CDS, which did not, included JM localities and IDPs camps (Yousif, 2015) 2.

Soil: The soils of the area closely related to geomorphic development of various surfaces (HTS, 1958). Soils are rather shallow and compact, derived mainly from the basement complex rocks and volcanic materials, with rock close to the surface or exposed mainly along watercourses. Cº and max. Cº), while the coldest month is January (min. Cº and max. Cº). Temperature as low as 3Cº has been recorded and night frost are common along the wadis in the mid-winter months of December and January. Considerable disturbance to the forest caused by cultivation. The lower slopes occupied by Cordia africana the Species of garckeana, Ficus ganphalcarpa and several Ficus spp. In the middle slope between 2000 – 2500 meters exist Olea laperinia and Acacia abbida in the volcanic soils. Salix Safsaf is found on the bank of watercourses.

Above 2500 meters no trees are found (Badi, 1989) 2. and Phoenix reclinata (Adam, 2003). Wood Products in The Study Area: Wood may be the most important forest product used by communities of Darfur in general and Jabel Marra area in particular, beside their contribution in the supply of fuel wood and poles. Thur forest produces sawn timber and sawn logs from several species; however, saw logs production from natural forest is not based on management plans in spite of the presence of two government mills that provide commercial service to the communities (Elsiddig, 2007). Land Use and Economic Activities: People in the region have been practicing agriculture relying on rainfall and traditional farming methods. Average total cultivated land per farmer, ranges from about 0. It is nutritional process, which gradually obliterates the regenerative limit of the helpless biological system in bone-dry and semi-bone-dry areas with arrive utilize techniques, which are not adjusted to common conditions.

The dry land region south the desert is characterized by thorn buns land vegetation zone where nomadic camel herders and sedentary millet farming are the main economic activities (Badi, 1989). Considering the vegetation of the whole country, the classification is based on latitudinal variation associated with changes in rainfall, soil texture and topography. The semi-arid zone of Sudan extends between latitudes 14 º and 17 º N, the low woodland savannah extends between latitudes 10 º, and 14 º N these two zones are the most densely populated zones and the most vulnerable to drought and desertification Over-cultivation, over-grazing and extensive clearance of forests increase the vulnerability of the ecosystem to desertification process. The consequences of desertification in the Sudan distressed the local communities (Elsiddig, 2007) Figure 7: Vegetation of Sudan after separation Source: FNC (2011) 2. In general vegetation degradation is the quantitative and low quantitative reduction of vegetation cover resulting from different agents including human instigated practices and serious delayed dry spell under poor land asset management (Ahmed , 2016).

Forest and Range Resource in Darfur: Forests represent about 45% of the area in the region. Forests are very important and vital natural resource but deteriorated continuously. Forests are considered as main food resource for the large animal wealth, most of these forests are found naturally from poor savannah in the north to rich savannah in south (Darfur land commission 2008). Vegetation Composition Changes in Darfur Region: Darfur people, including the migrants, pastoralists and inactive groups in late time, has prompted the difference in species type. Vegetation of Jabel Marra: The natural vegetation of Jabel Marra on the other hand is attitudinally and topographically zone. A wide range of indigenous trees and plant species cover Jabel Marra from top to bottom. Some species occur within limited zones a long Jabel Marra slope like Olea Capparini that occurs at higher altitudes up to 2500 m.

s. a. leiocarpus) Terminalia and Azanza species on shallow soils of lower slopes and khaya senegalensis, Cordia abyssinica, Ficus species, Albizia and comrpetum species on profound penetrable soil with uneven geology at 1300 – 1500 m. a. s. l the ground vegetation includes grasses and other species including herbs mosses and ferns. Adam, 2003) On the massif there is a wide range of indigenous tree species the distribution depends on soil depth, topography, elevation and rainfall. The cash crops are two types: irrigated orchards (Mangos, citrus fruits sugar cane) and rain Tomatoes, Potatoes and forests products are the main cash crops in Jabel Marra area. Throughout the area a traditional system of a weekly village market is in operation. The nomads on the other hand bring some of their dairy products and livestock for sale (Awoke, 2002) 2.

Environmental Problem of Forests Destruction: It is worth to mention that forests and woodland account for around 33% of the aggregate region. The loss and destruction of forests and wood lands varied considerably between countries depending on the need for agricultural land, fuel wood, marketable timber and land for settlement (Mustafa 1993; In Ibrahim 2006). In the creating nations the prime reason for natural change has been the populace blast which was realized by better restorative offices and effective battle of illnesses (Stirred, 2002) backwoods has an extraordinary part in the conservation and control of the water of a district. Woods can supplant simulated seepage by activity as colossal pumping frameworks ready to remove day by day by vitality of the sun expansive amounts of water from the dirt and dissipate it into the air (Got up, 2002).

The macroclimate relies upon the relative position and size of landmasses and seas, on the weight contrast created in the higher layers of the environment and on the area of marshes and High Mountain. Eckmullner and Van Moarren (1984) Expressed that backwoods could satisfy their different capacities on the off chance that they are ensured against demolition and harm. This assurance raises issues of enactment, organization, administration, research and universal connection. Prescribed burning may enhance the territory for some creature by expanding the protein and supplement substance of scrounge, yet they may diminish natural surroundings reasonableness for other that lean towards the nearness of thick undergrowth and woody flotsam and jetsam (World Bank, 1991). The Fires in Jabel Marra: There is limited awareness in Sudan on the problem of Wild-land fire and very limited actions are taken to prevent and suppress fires (Elgamri, 2002).

Fires set by farmers or nomads are in the most of the natural rangeland of Sudan. The range and pasture administration (RPA) is only able to build a limited number of firebreak. El gamri (2002) stated some points behind the causes of fires conflicts, honey collectors and cleaning of agricultural land in addition smokers are the common causes of fires in Jabel Marra. Negative Impact on The Rangeland: The high level of insecurity in Darfur affected the rangeland and pasture sector by inducing the intensive grazing in the near rangeland instead of grazing in far rangeland, in addition to factor of fires, which is caused by used of heavy army, ambushes coal or any other reason are factor which lead to loss of desirable grasses which is be the main cause of degradation (Ismail, 2012).

Indirect Effects: Result from the adapting procedures utilized by nearby and dislodged populace to survive the financial disturbance and loss of essential administration caused by war and different sorts of contention, regularly involves the liquidation of common resources for prompt survival wage, or the abuse of peripheral zone, which can prompt long haul natural harm. Institutional Effect: War is much the same as any sort of contention, it causes an interruption of state organizations, activity and instruments of arrangement coordination, which thus makes space for poor administration, absence of speculation, wrongdoing and the fall of positive natural practices. In the meantime, monetary asset is redirected far from interest out in the open framework and basic administration towards military targets (Lute and Achim, 2009). Negative Impacts on Economics Aspect: Natural resources are found in Darfur.

The war disrupted the psychologist of the ladies and kids specifically, notwithstanding the awful recollections made by the loss of relatives, regardless of living in IDPs camps for up to ten years. The Darfurian individuals got little consolation on this issue (Mohammed, 2009). These very bad conditions resulted in some negative social behaviour, which are not known for Darfurian people before the war. Women who sell tea in the streets alongside other activities may lead to many social diseases (Alnour, 2012). The War and Climate Change: As indicated by the primary correspondence report of the Republic of Sudan to the UNFCCC, there is mounting proof of long haul provincial environmental change in a few sections of the nation (Republic of Sudan 2003). Beneficial Influences of War on The Forest Section: War's has appeared to be advantageous to the earth just in the event that it keeps out of expansive zones, it could be helpful to broaden the idea of peace parks to battle regions, the possibility of a global "Green power" to secure biodiversity hotspots ought to be given genuine thought, mindfulness is developing that political shakiness ought not block protection exertion from being proceeded with (Dirk&Ellen, 2002) Likewise, in a couple of outrageous cases war has helped timberlands by enabling environment to recuperate free of human weight.

For instance, in hundred Years of war amongst Britain and France in the fourteenth century the decimation and consequent surrender of numerous towns positively affected woods (Condition of world backwoods 2005). The Positive Impact of War on People: Individuals regularly see war as a negative power working against an effective rivalry of gathering or group objectives. Be that as it may, struggle may likewise have some conceivably positive parts, contingent on the gathering in which strife happens. The three critical constructive outcomes of contention are as per the following: - • Improving the nature of choices. Table 4: Satellite data Images Used for the study Bands Spatial Resolution Format Landsat-7 B1, B2, B3, B4, B5, B6 30m Geotiff Landsat-8 OLI B1, B2, B3, B4, B5, B6, B7 30m Geotiff Sentinel 2 MSI B2, B3, B4, B5, B6, B7, B8, B8a, B11, B12 10m,20m MTD-MSILIC 3.

Method 3. Image Pre-processing Before the image classification process, pre-processing steps for satellite images were implemented, top of atmospheric correction and Pan Sharpening then clipped to include the study. Pre-processing is a common name for operations with images at the lowest level of abstraction - both input and output are intensity images (Skow, 2006). These iconic images are of the same kind as the original data captured by the sensor, with an intensity image usually represented by a matrix of image function values (brightness’s). It is worth pointing out that the accuracy of image-based techniques is generally lower than physically-based corrections, but they are very useful when no atmospheric measurements are available as they can improve the estimation of land surface reflectance. The path radiance is given by (Sobrino, et al. And the resulted.

Figure 7: Image before and after atmospheric correction 3. Pan Sharpening Pan Sharpening is shorthand for “Panchromatic sharpening”. Up-sample all MS bands accordingly. Reverse the forward Gram-Schmidt transform using the same transform coefficients, but on the high-resolution bands. The result of this backward Gram-Schmidt transform is the pan-sharpened image in high resolution 3. Image Classification Based on the idea that different feature types on the earth's surface have a different spectral reflectance and remittance properties, their recognition is carried out through the classification process. In a broad sense, image classification is defined as the process of categorizing all pixels in an image or raw remotely sensed satellite data to obtain a given set of labels or land cover themes (Lillesand and Keifer 1994). These can be used as alternative approaches but are often combined into hybrid methodologies using more than one method (A, Richards, Jia, & Xiupung, 2006) 3.

Supervised classification It is based on the idea that a user can select sample pixels in an image that are representative of specific classes and then direct the image processing software to use these training sites as references for the classification of all other pixels in the image (Mantero, Moser, & Serpico, 2005). Training sites (also known as testing sets or input classes) are selected based on the knowledge of the user. The user also sets the bounds for how similar other pixels must be to group them together. These bounds are often set based on the spectral characteristics of the training area, plus or minus a certain increment (often based on "brightness" or strength of reflection in specific spectral bands). Once the spectrum of the diffuse reflectance is obtained, it must be processed for the material identification, classification, or discrimination.

Rashmi S, Swapna Addamani, Venkat & Ravikiran, 2014) Figure 8:Spectral Angle Mapper Classification Approaches Source: Supervised Classification Approaches to Analyze Hyperspectral Dataset 3. Class Description Four general LC classes according to LC (ISO 19144-2 Land Cover Meta Language) land cover classification system including Water Body, Bare land, Forest and Grassland were used for this case study. For each LC class, no less than 17 tests were gathered and utilized for the classification of the three images in ENVI. Description of the of the land cover classes used in the study Description Class Area covered with sparse to dense woody species Forest Area dominated by grasses and shrubs Grassland Area not used Bare land Area occupied by water Water 3. Of several approaches to accuracy assessment, the following sections will focus on the site-specific error analysis of pixel misclassification.

Site-Specific Site-specific error analysis takes into account locational accuracy of the classification (Campbell 1987, p 340). This process makes a pixel-by-pixel comparison between the remotely-sensed, data-derived thematic map and a "true" map of the area with the same theme. This accuracy assessment approach is still prone to errors attributable to control point location error, boundary line error, and pixel misclassification (Hord & Brooner, 1976). Usually, the purpose of classification is to derive a thematic map of some unknown characteristic of the Earth's surface or some characteristic that has changed over time, so it would be unusual for a complete and current reference map to exist. Table 4: Error Matrix for Classification of Landsat 2002 Table 5: Accuracy Assessment for Classification of Landsat 2002 Figure 12: Independent ground truth generated from ArcGIS Error Matrix Classified Data Forest Bare land Water Grassland Row Total Unclassified 2 0 0 0 2 Forest 23 0 0 2 25 Bare land 0 7 0 0 7 Water 0 0 4 0 4 Grassland 8 6 0 12 26 Column Total 33 13 4 14 64 Table 6: Error Matrix for Classification of landsat 8 2017 Accuracy Assessment Class Name Reference Total Classified Total Number Correct Producers Accuracy Users Accuracy Forest 33 31 23 69.

Bare land 13 13 7 53. Water 4 4 4 100. Grassland 14 14 12 85. Totals 64 62 46 Overall Accuracy = 71. One of the significant utilizations of remotely-detected information got from Earth-circling satellites is change discovery as a result of redundant scope at short interims and predictable picture quality (Anderson 1977, Ingram et al. Nelson 1983, Singh 1984). Change recognition is valuable in such differing applications as land utilize change examination, observing of moving development, evaluation of deforestation, investigation of changes in vegetation phenology, occasional changes in field creation, harm appraisal, edit pressure identification, calamity checking snow-dissolve estimations, day/night examination of warm attributes and other natural changes. Manual treatment of information for change discovery utilizing consecutive symbolism is an impressive assignment (Adeniyi 1980). The advanced idea of most satellite information makes it effortlessly amiable for PC supported investigation. For instance, two pictures characterized with 80 for every penny precision may have just a 0.

x 0. x 100= 64 for each penny amend joint characterization rate. Computationally, it requires grouping of the entire scenes twice (Robinson 1979). Weismiller el al. Table 11: Statistical Analysis of both Grassland and Forest of the Study Area from Landsat7 and Sentinel-2 Table 12: Statistical Analysis of the Landsat 7 and Landsat 8 Classified Land Cover of the Study Area. Table 13: Statistical Analysis of both Grassland and Forests of the Study Area from Landsat 7 and Landsat 8 Table (10) summarized the statistical analysis carried out based on data of the classified images of the study area for 2002 and 2017, referring to table (11) which show gradual ongoing declining in forest plantations from 52. Km² (21. in the year 2002 to 32. Km² (12. And according to table (8-1), the forest area in the year 2002 covered approximately 52. Km² (21. this figure was reduced to 32. Km² (12. in the years 2017 respectively, which indicated a continuing decrease in the forest status of the study area.

this figure was sharply reduced to approximately 25. Km² (9. in the years 2017, which indicated a greater decrease in the bare soil covered the study area, this may have revealed to the replacement of the bare land areas by either forest plantations or Grassland. The result of the statistical classification of the Landsat 7 and Sentinel-2 was used b reliable because its in terms of spatial resolution of the Sentinel-2 Image. Transition matrix The transition matrix records change that occurred to each land cover category to the other category this matrix is produced by statistical analysis for detection of the land cover change result for the matrix table presented below (table 17) the rows represent newer land cover categories (land cover 2017) and the column represents the older categories (land cover 2002) Land Cover 2017 Land Cover 2002 Forest Grassland Bare land Class Total Forest 21.

As part of classification result I found that the most forest gain occurred in the highland areas of the mountain mean while the forest loess occurred in Lowlands which indicate that there might be in accessibility for these area as shown in the map below Figure 18: Accessibility area CHAPTER FOUR Discussion, Conclusions and Recommendations 4. Discussion The main aim of this research was to determine the impact of armed conflicts on forest vegetation. Armed conflicts on forest vegetation has negative effects which include pollution due to harmful gases released, solids, fires and use of heavy machinery on earth. Therefore, there is continuous decline of the natural forests due to expansion in the number of displaced people, development of the eradicated individuals from one zone to another. Physical forest destruction has tremendously affected the natural forests (Abdalla, 2005).

Western - Sudan has lost more than 30% of its natural forest since Sudan’s independence and rapid forest destruction is in progress. The map below from global forest watch indicates the differences in forest loss cover up-to 2017. The results from the statistical classification shows the trend in which forests are destroyed. There is also a small increase of the forest cover in some part particularly the highland areas although, nearly half of the total area declined compared to 2002 according to finding results from change detection assessment and the land cover map produced by hunting technical services. Figure 19: The map from global forest watch There are several sources of vegetation degradation identified in the study area some of them being: 4. Drought, climate change and desertification The repeated droughts destroyed a wide area of forest vegetation in the Sahel belt.

These areas have not been reconstituted by trees because of the dry condition and increased land use pressure which have reduced the potential for seed distribution, germination and new growth. In regions such as Northern Darfur, the Long-term drop in precipitation has shifted the northern limit of several tree species to the south (Adam, 2003). Deforestation largely contributes to desertification due to soil depletion, erosion and sand encroachment. Development of hostile conditions causes’ gradual deforestation as trees die and are not replaced. Forest legislation should specify that a plan must regulate management of forest land in conformity with the management objectives for specified period. Specification of the maximum area from which forest produce may be harvested, the forest protection operations to be carried out, the forest development operations to be carried out including silviculture.

Other aiding matters in implementing management objectives effectively include forest inventory, mapping, technical and social surveys and public consultation. The involvement of all interest groups in planning is another way of ensuring future forest plan. This initiative for formulation of a forest plan should be taken by the state or a concession holder on its behalf. FNC should address the activities of community forestry as one of its main tasks to encourage and recruit new personal to the field of community forestry. Also range administration should pay more attention to rangeland in the study area and find solution for the degraded lands. Comprehensive planning should be carried out to restock the depleted forest through afforestation program with consideration to the role of community participation. FNC and other partnerships should look for alternative solution of energy instead of fuel-wood.

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