Can Iran rise peacefully
Iran faces daunting obstacles to success, Lee (2015) explains that a majority of the Middle Eastern countries and governed by the secular autocrats whose primary goal is repressing Islamism opposition. On the other hand; Kozhanov (2015) states that Iran is an Islamist autocracy and is focused on suppressing the secular opposition. This dynamic: leaderless, unorganized and unarmed citizens with an eye for economic pluralism and dignity versus a rapacious organized and heavily armed theocracy espousing martyrdom are not the best combination of success. Therefore, from the viewpoint of transition theory, this paper sets forth to argue that Iran cannot rise peacefully, quickly or soon. Iranian government stifles free speech, persecutes religious minorities and gays, treats female as second class citizens and records the world’s highest per capita.
Zarif (2017) argues that Javad Zarif who is the country’s foreign minister has successfully managed to manipulate Western officials, analysts and journalist by pulling punches to preserve their access. Rahigh-Aghsan et al. (2016) in their study findings revealed that regular protest is likely to compel the government of Iran to address the grievances of the majority, but Lee (2015) disputes these claims saying that based on history this is not likely to happen. Kozhanov (2015) seconds Lee (2015) by stating that in days, weeks and years to come Iran should be ready for an even more aggressive regime. The country’s security forces thrive when the country is in the state of insecurity. Kozhanov (2015) argues that as a result of massive investments in nuclear capacity, Iran is likely to manufacture a bomb that is worth of weapons-grade uranium in weeks.
This is a possibility that failed to be stopped by sabotage attempts by the Israel and West Powers. Secondly, Iran has successfully installed over 9,000 new centrifuges in less than two years; this is an investment that has seen it double its enrichment capacity. Likewise, Lee (2015) adds that this is a short step from the current 20% enriched uranium being produced. Western intelligence is of the opinion that Iran has at least a year before they can manufacture such a weapon but in his research Kozhanov (2015) states that the country has the ability to do so in months if it pleases, this is an indication that the time taken to construct this massive weapon is shrinking by day. Rahigh-Aghsan, and Peter (2016) state that if this is not realized, the deals are as good as no deal at all, this is an uncertain area of discussion as Kozhanov (2015) argues that Iran is likely to fail to acknowledge or accept such a deal.
He additionally adds that this is because the deals fail to factor in the country’s operational scheme and its attempts to make its oppression deeds unknown to the world. Iranians have been oppressed and mistreated by an Islamist autocracy government for years with little to no input from the global community due to the possible dangers that are likely to occur if any peaceful negotiation goes soar. The Iran government has over the years use the necessary efforts to ensure that the world does not hear of any events in the country. This has seen minimal media coverage of the actual acts of oppression and living standards of the locals as a result of poor leadership. "Living with nuclear hedging: the implications of Iran's nuclear strategy.
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