Australia's Future Demographics

Document Type:Research Paper

Subject Area:Education

Document 1

From the United Nations projections on the world population, there will be about 10 billion people inhabiting the world. The betterment of people’s living standards, health and life expectancies have been the source of population increase, and on the other hand, the declining rates of fertility serves as a moderating factor. Among those countries facing fertility decline in the event of increased life expectancy is Australia; and hence increased. Other significant fluctuations include changes in sex composition and shift from a monoculture to one of the world’s most diverse societies. Growth of population and its components Beginning from the twentieth century, Australian population has increased more than five times from 3. On the other hand, the net-migration rate has also substantially fluctuated.

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Fertility rates The beginning of the 20th century recorded an approximate of 3. 5 children for every female, a rate which was lesser compared to the previous years. After a decline during the Great Depression, in 1930s, the rate of fertility reached the peak for the century in 1961 where the number of births per woman were averaged at 3. 6, however, by 1976 the rate had dropped to 2. Australia ranked second in the list among the western countries, preceded by Israel in the foreign births population proportion (Home, A. B. S. According to the National Census of 1996, the population born overseas was 23. 3 percent. Between 2011 and 2016, the median age increased marginally from 37 to 38 years meaning that half of the population was older than 38 years and half younger than 38 years (Australia & Swan, 2016).

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However depending on the region, this measure varies with Tasmania having a median of 42 years; Southern Australia with 40 years median age; and the youngest of all being the Northern Territory with a median age of 32 years. The ABS projections show that by 2051, there will be an increase of between 43. 2 and 46. 2 years in the median age. 97 (which is not possible) births per woman fertility rate is kept constant, the population of children under the age of 15 is foreseen to be at a slower growth pace relative to the total population growth. By 2021,the Australian Bureau of Statistics projects the number of children under 15 would have been outnumbered by persons aged above 65, and nearly 25 percent of the total population will be 65 years and above by 2051, and about 5 percent having 85 years and above.

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Regional diversity ABS projections show that the expected decline of population due to the number of deaths exceeding births and the associated aging population, states and territories will vary significantly in terms of its diversity. Tasmania will be the first region to record a natural decline between 2016 and 2026, followed by South Australia between 2022 and 2026 and the Northern region after 2050. It is projected that the population of people aged 65 and above will be about three times more (between 30 and 40 percent compared to 10 percent) in Tasmania than the Northern region by 2051 (Australia & Swan, 2016). The recent drop in life expectancy difference is attributed to decline in the number of heart disease related deaths among older men. ABS projects that by 2051, the proportion of men aged 65 and older will be around 88 per a 100 women of the same age group, while the proportion of those aged 85 and older will have increased to 70 in the same year (Booth & Tickle, 2013).

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